Today's rankings came together pretty easily, until the end. A few teams shuffled down the list, but I started having trouble when I got to the 20's, where I had to figure out how to align several uninspiring 3 loss teams, the best of the 4 loss times, and Boise State. It took erasing and rewriting the list multiple times, and I honestly don't think there is a terrible wrong way to arrange the teams I have from 19-25.
RK
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MINE
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CFP
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1
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Florida State
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Alabama
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2
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Oregon
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Oregon
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3
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TCU
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TCU
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4
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Alabama
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Florida State
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5
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Ohio State
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Ohio State
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6
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Baylor
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Baylor
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7
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Michigan St
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Arizona
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8
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Arizona
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Michigan State
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9
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Kansas St
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Kansas State
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10
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Mississippi St
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Mississippi
St
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11
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Wisconsin
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Georgia Tech
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12
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Georgia Tech
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Ole Miss
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13
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Missouri
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Wisconsin
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14
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Oklahoma
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Georgia
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15
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Ole Miss
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UCLA
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16
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UCLA
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Missouri
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17
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Georgia
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Arizona State
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18
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Arizona St
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Clemson
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19
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Clemson
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Auburn
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20
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LSU
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Oklahoma
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21
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Auburn
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Louisville
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22
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Boise St
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Boise State
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23
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USC
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Utah
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24
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Nebraska
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LSU
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25
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Minnesota
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USC
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So here is how I'm going to tacked things this week. I will look at each segment of teams according to number of losses. I probably won't mention all the teams, but then I'm not getting paid to do this... The first segment is pretty easy.
Undefeated
Florida State is the only team without a loss after Marshall took a loss and officially vacated the rankings. In any given week, regardless of the opponent, I am never surprised that they win and would never be surprised if they lost. They seem almost as averse to comfortable wins as they are to losing. No losses keeps them atop my list even as they tumble to 4th this week in the CFP. I think that if they win their conference, they deserve to stay in the playoff and I wouldn't be shocked if they win.
1 Loss
Other than Marshall, the 1 loss teams all follow in the ranks. At this point, I assume Alabama wins their conference and makes the playoff, but I am completely uninspired by their wins against teams that have now amassed no fewer than 4 losses, except for Mississippi St with 2, and their only real notable win was Ole Miss, who now has three losses. I like that TCU, with a better loss, is ranked higher than Baylor, and it looks like Ohio St may make the B1G the power 5 conference to miss the playoff. Their bad luck holds as the Heisman candidate replacement to their Heisman candidate QB went out last week. They could easily lose to Wisconsin in their conference championship now and elevate Michigan St to be the most likely 2 loss team to make the playoff. Speaking as 2 loss teams...
2 Loss
I think Michigan State is clearly the best 2 loss team, but the CFP has Arizona above them, presumably because they beat Oregon. Arizona has the better wins, but Michigan St only lost to 1 loss teams. With Arizona's rematch against Oregon coming up again, as well as Alabama and Florida St playing good teams in their own championship games, we could see almost the entire playoff upended.
Seven of the remaining 2 loss teams come next, with Colorado St (who I mistakenly marked as a 1 loss team last week) and Northern Illinois not making the list at all. Boise St falls behind a few three loss teams who had significantly more impressive wins and losses.
3 Loss
I am shocked that Oklahoma is ranked so low in the CFP. They don't have any impressive wins, but their only losses come against their own #3, #6, and #9. Ole Miss is tough to figure out and I have them ranked next. They have some of the most impressive wins in the country, against 1 and 2 loss teams ranked #1, #10, and #22 in the CFP, but they also had some bad losses against 2 of the ranked 4 loss teams and a surging 6 loss Arkansas.
Looking at the wins and losses, I felt compelled to rank Nebraska. They had losses to quality teams, including the CFP #8 and #13. They don't have many wins against impressive teams, but I have to apply the logic I have used elsewhere - you can only win the games you play. I can't entirely dismiss a team because they didn't have a strong enough schedule, but only based on the teams they DID play and how they fared against them. Nebraska only lost against good teams.
A few teams that earned their third loss this week went through my normal evaluation and ended where you see them. I have Georgia ranked lower than the CFP, mostly because they lost to South Carolina and Florida, who both stink. They have Louisville all the way up to 21, and I very nearly put them in over Minnesota at 25, but they have no real impressive wins and lost against a pretty bad team, while Minnesota lost against impressive TCU, Ohio St, and Wisconsin - in addition to the middling Illinois.
Several other 3 loss teams remain that don't make the list. Memphis and Duke are probably top 30, and I actually like Cincinnati more than Louisville. UCF and East Carolina are among the remaining 3 loss teams, but won't move up into the ranks due to bad losses.
4 Loss
I feel like there are five 4 loss teams worth looking at in the rankings right now. I don't understand the CFP fascination with Utah. They don't have a win that separates them from the crowd, especially now that UCLA took their third loss, and their bad loss to Washington St puts them below the others for me. As I said at the top, I can't fault any shuffling in these teams, and the lower 3 loss teams and Boise St.
Games to Watch This Week:
Oregon vs Arizona in Pac 12 Championship
Alabama vs Missouri in SEC Championship
Ohio St vs Wisconsin in B1G Championship
Florida St vs Georgia Tech in ACC Championship
Kansas St vs Baylor
This week should prove to be exciting. All of these games could work to completely turn over the playoff teams, with only TCU's matchup against Iowa St the only "easy" game for a current playoff team. For a minute, try to imagine what would happen if Oregon, Alabama, Ohio St, and Florida St all lose, with Baylor winning. Who stays in? Does Baylor become the second Big 12 team in the playoff? Does Florida St lose any chance at the playoff? What 2 loss teams stay or move in new?
For the record, I think any one of these games could produce an upset, and I think Michigan St is most worthy to move into the playoff as a 2 loss team... ahead of any current 1 loss teams should they take a loss this week.
