It is a short week for me at work with my Monday's spent at home with the kids while the wife works and Thanksgiving taking me out of town after today, but I am making myself get this done anyway. I am not delusional enough to think anyone outside of a very small handful actually read these all the way through, so I am ready to admit... I did it for me. I liked it. I was good at it. And I was really -- I was alive.
Not a ton happened this week with many teams facing late season non-con cupcakes, but we have enough excitement to mix up our rankings a bit once more. You might actually notice a few seemingly arbitrary rankings down there. After seeing a few things and watching the strength of schedule get watered down or shored up in a few cases, I felt like the moves were warranted. There is also nothing like a breaking the single game rushing record to move your team up a few spots...
RK
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MINE
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CFP
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1
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Florida State
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10-1
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2
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Oregon
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10-1
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3
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TCU
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11-0
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4
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Mississippi
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10-1
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5
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Alabama
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9-1
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6
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Ohio State
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10-1
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7
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Baylor
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9-1
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8
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Michigan St
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9-2
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9
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UCLA
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9-2
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10
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Arizona
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9-2
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11
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Wisconsin
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9-2
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12
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Kansas State
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8-2
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13
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Georgia
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9-2
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14
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Georgia Tech
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9-2
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15
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Arizona State
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8-3
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16
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Missouri
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9-2
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17
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Auburn
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9-2
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18
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Clemson
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8-3
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19
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Oklahoma
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8-3
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20
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Minnesota
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8-3
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21
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Ole Miss
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8-3
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22
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Marshall
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8-3
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23
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Duke
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9-2
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24
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Colorado State
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11-0
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25
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Boise State
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7-4
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This week, I didn't look at the new CFP at all until I was typing in my personal ranks into the table next to them. That, in itself, was pretty interesting. On my own ranks, it stayed the same for the most part until I got to Ole Miss and the other losers for the week. Obviously, the big difference off the bat is my ranking for Alabama. I certainly don't think they deserve the top spot - with the standards I've been using, they clearly do not deserve it. Florida St doesn't deserve it either, but each week I am completely dumbfounded that they don't lose. They might not even be a top 10 team, but at this point I could see them beating anyone, while also not being surprised by them losing to anyone. ANYONE.
Not only do I not have Alabama number 1, I moved them out of a playoff spot this week. Other than Miss St, they haven't beaten a team that doesn't have at least 4 losses. Other than Miss St, no other top team has such a weak schedule. They have at least beat Auburn, who only has 3 losses for now. Even FSU with their epic schedule weakness has beat a pair of 3 loss teams. With Ole Miss continuing to plummet, Alabama's loss keeps looking worse.
Oregon is up there because of how few losses their top opponents have - I'll be putting their number of losses in parenthesis from here on out. They've beaten Mich St (2) and UCLA(2) , along with the only 4 loss team in the CFP - Utah. Their sole loss is to Arizona (2). Baylor has beaten TCU (1) and Oklahoma (3), but I still have TCU ranked above them because Baylor lost to West Virginia (5). I am finding the head to head matchups to not be all that helpful. I don't care who was best that one week, I care who is best on the season. TCU has beat Kansas St (2), Oklahoma (3), Minnesota (3), and that WV team that beat Baylor, with their only loss to another 1 loss team. Honestly, I think that by the time the conference championship games are played, the Big 12 may be the conference with the most legit claim to two playoff spots.
Alabama's loss to Ole Miss is looking worse, but it will never look as bad as Ohio State's loss to Virginia Tech. Ohio State is looking playoff worthy, but it will take that precious conference championship and a few losses ahead of them to make it happen.
My rankings stay the same until Ole Miss, who plummets ten spots after a third loss, this time to Arkansas, who is suddenly out to prove that either they aren't terrible, or that the top SEC teams aren't that great. Judging by their existing record, we have to assume that AK still isn't some powerhouse and that the teams they are beating just weren't as good as they were getting credit for.
My next change is to jump Wisconsin over K St and AZ St. Melvin Gordon. Heisman. They've added decent wins lately over their most difficult opponents so far. This middle section could go either way, so I've allowed myself this indulgence. They have a bad loss that K-State doesn't have, but I think they have better wins than either of the teams they jumped.
The next ranked team is Georgia, moving up a few spots, but only jumping an Arizona St that continues to lose my confidence. They had 3 wins against 3 loss opponents, but all three of those teams lost this week. I put them behind Georgia Tech as well. I was surprised when I couldn't find a reason to put this team lower, but losses by three teams ahead of them made it an easy move. All three of those teams (Nebraska, USC, Utah) now find themselves outside of my top 25. I am hoping that if Nebraska beats Iowa and Minnesota beats Wisconsin, a share in the B1G West title will allow me to move the Huskers back into the top 25.
Auburn didn't lose, and their strength of schedule was left relatively unscathed, but I still ended up moving Missouri past them. That's saying something, because I look for reasons to leave Missouri out every week because they are the worst. I'd consider that a minor reshuffling anyway, along the lines of Clemson jumping Oklahoma, but with all the teams staying pretty fairly close to previous positioning.
Towards the end here, we find the teams from those other conferences re-emerging. I just can't quit them. Regardless of schedule, I can't see myself dumping teams that have lost 0 or 1 games. The Mountain West is probably better than they are credited for. The AAC is actually pretty decent as well, with 4 three loss teams.
This might be unfeasible, but I wonder if the best way to find the best teams might be to limit conference games a bit and have a bit of a round-robin tournament with non-conference games to end the year. Rather than having a deeper playoff, regional conferences, or eliminating bowls, simply have the Playoff Committee, or some similar group, schedule two weeks of non-conference matchups after conference schedules (and maybe championships), but before bowls and playoffs. Each team gets a home and away game, and everyone gets to face a team that should be competitive and telling. Sure, the bottom feeders will all be playing each other, but that at least gives teams with no wins a shot to put one in the win column! Meanwhile, Marshall gets to play a few solid 2 or three loss teams and show what they are really made of. Florida St gets to play 1 loss teams, Ohio St, Baylor and others get a chance to make us forget they lost to really bad teams. The committee gets to see what they need to set a final playoff and the rest of us get to see bowl-style match ups that actually matter in our home stadiums.
I am awesome and ideas.
Games to watch this week:
Arizona vs Arizona St - I expect AZ to win, bolstering Oregon as they go.
Alabama vs Auburn - I'd love to see AL lose and get me closer to that no-SEC playoff I'm hankering for.
Miss St vs Ole Miss - Ole Mess will have a hard time, but wouldn't it be great to see them win this?
Arkansas vs Missouri - After the last two weeks, I am actually interested in what will happen here...
Georgia vs Georgia Tech - could mix up the middle rankings a bit like the AZ game.
Minnesota vs Wisconsin - Ditto, plus it determines who goes to the B1G title game.
