Week 9 Top 25 WITHOUT SEC Bias

Brent Musburger says there isn’t an SEC bias. Kim Jong Un swears he can dunk a basketball. Both are about as convincing as Winnie the Pooh claiming his innocence with a paw still in the honey jar.

I think many would agree that the conference has had at least a slight edge over everyone else in the last decade or so, but they were far from dominant in anything other than winning championships in a system that was seemingly designed to create champions from the SEC.

Now, this blog isn’t about the existence of an SEC bias, it is for people who already accept this as truth. If you want to see the light about the bias, read this or this.

I wouldn’t accuse the playoff selection committee of an overt bias, I couldn’t do that with the illustrious Tom Osborne on board. I do, however, think they are starting from a foundation built on a preference toward the SEC. Essentially, everyone assumes SEC teams are the best, so a win or loss vs. an SEC team is weighted differently, even if it is undeserved.

I searched high and low for something that rejected any SEC bias, but couldn’t find a ranking to suit me, so I made my own. What do I think the first edition of the playoff selection committee’s top 25 would look like without an SEC bias? Let me tell ya… but before my rankings, I suppose I had better explain how I got them.

First of all, I completely ignored any existing rankings. Each week they start with the previous rankings and move from there, even though it all began with blind guessing for week 1. That, in itself, is a major flaw. Who cares if you beat the team ranked #7 in the preseason when they went on to lose 4 more games and finish unranked? Well, most rankings and strength of schedule formulas do…  

                   

Second, wins and losses are of primary importance. I start with a team’s record and adjust from there.

Strength of schedule will play in, but will be based on their opponent’s wins and losses rather than their ranking. I don’t buy that the SEC deserves a pass on losses based on “strength of schedule” when their non-conference games are all cupcakes and so are half of their conference games. Wins and losses. Not how highly ranked your opponents were, but how many wins and losses they have.

I will value a team’s full record over simply looking at each individual game. I won’t do a whole lot of “Team A beat Team B, and Team B beat Team C, so Team A is better than Team C.” Sports are crazy and sometimes a better overall team doesn’t have what it takes to win one day. You could run this sort of reasoning in circles. There are too many teams for this to be an effective tool in most cases.

I won’t put much stock in margin of victory. Any team can beat a lesser opponent and run up the score. I’d actually give more credit for a gutsy close win than a blowout. They didn’t “almost lose,” they won. That said, I would compare the quality of victory between common opponents. That’s more than looking at the score though – scores can be deceiving.

Head to head matchups will be tricky. Hard to rank a team below a team they beat. It has to happen though…

Finally, I won’t present this as perfection. I will ignore my own rules and dismiss logic. I will display my own bias and make choices that will prove wrong (though I will adjust my rankings more freely than anyone official ever would.) Additionally, yes, there will still be SEC teams ranked high, but I will be looking greedily towards their upcoming losses!

	THEIRS	MINE
1	Mississippi State	Florida State
2	Florida State	Mississippi St
3	Auburn	Auburn
4	Ole Miss	Oregon
5	Oregon	TCU
6	Alabama	Michigan St
7	TCU	Alabama
8	Michigan State	Ole Miss
9	Kansas State	Kansas State
10	Notre Dame	Baylor
11	Georgia	Notre Dame
12	Arizona	Nebraska
13	Baylor	Arizona
14	Arizona State	Georgia
15	Nebraska	Ohio State
16	Ohio State	Oklahoma
17	Utah	West Virginia
18	Oklahoma	Utah
19	LSU	Arizona State
20	West Virginia	LSU
21	Clemson	UCLA
22	UCLA	Marshall
23	East Carolina	Colorado St
24	Duke	Clemson
25	Louisville	Boise State

1. Florida State (7-0)

2. Mississippi St (7-0)

They won it last year and haven’t lost yet, so Florida St. deserves that top spot. Sort of.  I don’t trust them to win out, even with a pretty weak schedule, and their wins haven’t been all that convincing, but they are the reigning champs and one of only 3 undefeated teams.  Meanwhile, the only win for MS St that really impresses me is Auburn. LSU has two losses and Texas A&M has been a train wreck. If they finish undefeated with wins against Alabama and Ole Miss teams that look good now, I’d reconsider.

3. Auburn (6-1)

I really like Auburn to do well moving forward, but I think they earned this spot already. They lost to MS St, but beat K St and an overrated LSU. They play Ole Miss this week…

4. Oregon (7-1)

Oregon gave Mich St it’s only loss, and lost to a one loss Arizona team. I heard talk about the Pac-12 being good, but when they all lost 1 game to each other they were dismissed in other polls while SEC teams were excused. I’d rank them over Ole Miss. In fact, you won’t see Ole Miss for a while here…

5. TCU (6-1)

TCU’s numbers have been impressive and their only loss is to a good Baylor team, but their only impressive win is over Oklahoma.  I am ready to blow up this ranking over the next month while the Big 12, SEC, and Pac 12 cannibalize themselves, but for now TCU fits fine here.

6. Michigan State (7-1)

Yes, the B1G isn’t great this year, but Michigan St has only lost to Oregon, who is a better team that TCU lost to.  However, their only quality win is over an underrated Nebraska team. Yes, I am a biased Husker fan, but they are better than they are being given credit for...

7. Alabama (7-1)

I know, I know. Alabama lost to Ole Miss, so they should be behind them in the rankings. Let’s be honest though, this sort of thing is all over the rankings and will become more common as the season continues. Their best win is West Virginia right now, but Alabama gets some credit for last year, just like FSU.  They have plenty of opportunity to move up.

8. Ole Miss (7-1)

But, but, but they beat Alabama! They also got early credit in the rankings earlier on for a win over Texas A&M, who, as it turns out, is terrible. They lost to a 2-loss LSU team that I think is also over ranked. Both this team and LSU could prove me wrong, but for now I don’t mind holding back from giving them preemptive trophies.

9. Kansas State (6-1)

I’ll admit, I like to see them win. They deserve this spot though since their loss is to an Auburn team I like. Their best win is over OK, but they have a brutal schedule ahead that could move them up or down.  

10. Baylor (6-1)

Baylor beat a very good TCU team before losing to a surging West Virginia. Again, like the Pac 12, the Big 12 is far from decided, so we just have to balance those two outcomes to rank for now.

11. Notre Dame (6-1)

Notre Dame just lost a squeaker to #1 FSU. Staying undefeated so long tempts us to place them higher, especially since they almost beat FSU. Unfortunately for them, they didn’t, and their only win over a decent team is a 3 loss Stanford team. ND only plays Arizona St from here out, so moving back up would take St winning out, EXCEPT for the ND game…

12. Nebraska (7-1)

I TOLD YOU I WAS A FAN.

Nebraska hasn’t beat anyone great. There, I said it. Their best win was over an old rival in 3 loss Miami. It was fun, but not noteworthy.  Since this is my team, I will add that it WAS nice to see them finally break free from an unreasonable penchant for close games with Northwestern. I watched them lose that game a few years back in person so the win felt good, but since they have 3 other losses… so what? I’d mention the 3 loss Rutgers, but they will probably finish with 6 losses.

I’d compare this ranking to ND because neither have an impressive schedule and are characterized by who they lost to rather than who they beat. I WILL say that a Michigan St game that looked like a blowout ended with a gut wrenching near comeback that literally almost made me throw up. Wisconsin is still on our schedule, but doesn’t look that great. The Husker’s best chance at a higher ranking is a rematch with Mich. St in the B1G championship paired with losses around them.

13. Arizona (6-1)

Arizona is here because they beat Oregon, but may have shown their true stripes in a loss to USC. The Oregon win buoys them for now, but most of the best Pac 12 teams have back loaded schedules that will soon render this ranking useless.  

14. Georgia (6-1)

Georgia is my pet peeve. They lost their bowl game to Nebraska last year, but started out ranked higher and have benefited from that higher starting point. They beat a decent 2 loss Clemson team and an irrelevant 2 loss Missouri team who has done a good job of illustrating how weak an SEC schedule can be. Seriously go check theirs out). Worse, their loss is to South Carolina who has as many losses as wins.  

15. Ohio State (6-1)

Ohio State is in a sorry state, but I still almost put them above Georgia. They finished the regular season undefeated last year and the year before, but it didn’t really matter. They went on to lose Braxton Miller, a Heisman caliber player, and then lost an early game to a weak team.  Since the loss, the backup QB has shone and they’ve been fine, but you can’t hide the loss of their best player or the loss to Virginia Tech. They are ranked this low for now, and their only chance to move up is to beat Michigan St and then win the B1G.

16. Oklahoma (5-2)

If you have two losses, both need to be to higher ranked teams and you need at least one good win, otherwise you don’t deserve to be looked at this early. Oklahoma has two losses to higher ranked teams in TCU and K State. Its best win is over a West Virginia team I’ve mentioned a few times already! Hard to rank them higher with 2 losses, just assuming they will keep winning. They can prove their right to be higher though.

17. West Virginia (6-2)

Their losses are to OK and Alabama, and they gave Baylor their lone loss. They deserve this for now, but I’m looking forward to seeing where they land with a big game vs TCU this week.

18. Utah (6-1)

Utah beat UCLA and a few 3 loss teams, but lost to a bad Washington State team.  Like Ohio State, they can’t hide a bad loss, but wins in their strong late schedule could help them. I’m not excited to put them here, but it fits.

19. Arizona St. (6-1)

Arizona State only has one loss, but it was to a 2 loss team and I don’t think they beat else anyone who doesn’t currently have at least 3 losses total. Another Pac 12 team that fits here for now, but will move up or down a lot in the coming weeks.

20. LSU (7-2)

LSU beat a Wisconsin team that will be considered a worthwhile win except when Nebraska beats them.  They also beat an Ole Miss team that I think is overrated and will drop like a rock in the coming weeks. Their losses are impressive ones to that Auburn team I like and to the surprising Miss St team that will also probably not hold their place on top. I’m fine with ranking them highly among 2 loss teams, but look forward to dropping them as they lose their luster when they lose more.

21. UCLA (6-2)

UCLA has the unfortunate luck of having faced most of the best the Pac 12 has to offer this year, losing to Utah and Oregon already. They did hand Arizona St their only loss though, so that means something. Arizona is up this week.

22. Marshall (8-0)

Marshall is undefeated, but they have no one noteworthy anywhere on their schedule. I hate when non-major conferences don’t get attention though, so they’ll appear here for now. Regardless of schedule, it is hard to win them all, and we don’t know they aren’t good enough to beat anyone until they don’t.

23. Colorado State (7-1)

Colorado St doesn’t have much a schedule, but their only loss is to a decent Boise St team. They appear soon, so you’ll see why I placed CO St here over East Carolina or Duke.

24. Clemson (6-2)

Clemson lost to Georgia and FSU, and beat, who? Louisville? Meh.

25. Boise St. (6-2)

Boise St gave Colorado St it’s only loss, and while they also lost to Air Force, they get some credit for an early season loss to Ole Miss. If we want to give Ole Miss love, we gotta give some to Boise St, right? OK, fair enough, I don’t want to give Ole Miss any credit, so I doubt Boise St lasts here… but for now…

Others of note:

East Carolina has one loss, but none of their wins are worth a mention and their loss is to South Carolina. I already said this, but they have 4 losses. That’s not good. That’s the same amount of wins they have. East Carolina ranks lower than some teams with more losses because of this.

Duke I wish they were good at football and I don’t know why, unfortunately they aren’t. They have one loss and could finish the season that way, but they didn’t beat anyone of note and their loss is to that Miami team who hasn’t been good since they stopped paying players and offering on-campus bail bond service.

Louisville – I am going to cheat and drop them after they got their third loss in an early game to FSU. It was close and it was to my #1, but it was still their third loss.

Minnesota lost to TCU, but also to Illinois and it is about to get much tougher.

Wisconsin lost to LSU, but also Northwestern.  They have a chance to make the ranks, but don’t deserve it yet.