Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Week 10 Top 25 Without SEC Bias

It's Tuesday and you know what that means... cheap tacos! It also means that the latest installment of the Playoff Selection Committee's top 25 will be released. Unlike some, I am sure they approach this task with mostly pure intentions, but I am also sure the process is polluted by an inaccurate preconception of the quality of the SEC. As such, I still feel the need to spend time to put together my own rankings and ignore everyone else's!

Before we dive in, lets take a moment to appreciate how bad the SEC East actually is...
Georgia, the team that supposedly had a great chance to win the conference and force the committee to consider two SEC teams in the playoff, just got blown out by Florida. The leader of the division is now Missouri, who is every bit as good as, say, the third best team in the Big Ten's East division, or the 4th best in the Big Ten West...

The  SEC west still looks good, but will continue to suffer season-ending losses as ugly as Laquon Treadwell's. I had the unfortunate experience of watching that live, and it was bad that I actually had real sympathetic feelings toward not just Treadwell, but the team. That's a tough way to lose a game.

Starting this weekend, we should see several more teams drop out of serious playoff contention. It is unlikely that a 2 loss team will make it in without good fortune and a conference championship, so ranked matchups such as TCU/K State, Oklahoma/Baylor, Notre Dame/Arizona St, Alabama/LSU, Ohio St/Mich St, and Oregon/Utah should seal the fate of several teams and shake up the ranks considerably.

Anywho, seeing as the official ranks don't come out until later, I'll just be listing my own with the teams' previous ranks in parenthesis. Comments to follow...


1 (1)
Florida State
2 (2)
Mississippi St
3 (3)
Auburn
4 (4)
Oregon
5 (5)
TCU
6 (6)
Michigan St
7 (7)
Alabama
8 (9)
Kansas State
9 (10)
Baylor
10 (11)
Notre Dame
11 (12)
Nebraska
12 (15)
Ohio State
13 (8)
Ole Miss
14 (16)
Oklahoma
15 (19)
Arizona St
16 (20)
LSU
17 (21)
UCLA
18 (13)
Arizona
19 (14)
Georgia
20 (18)
Utah
21 (22)
Marshall
22 (23)
Colorado St
23 (NA)
Duke
24 (17)
West Virginia
25 (NA)
Maryland

Even though these rankings aren't supposed to be predictions, I take great pride in the fact that, at least for this week, I don't have to adjust my top 7 teams. My intent is to rank teams according to their performance to date, and without an SEC bias, teams like Ole Miss and Georgia were appropriately ranked lower. I feel like their losses prove that out to an extent. 

Close games for Miss St, Auburn, and TCU remind us how easily this could all fall apart, while Oregon's victory justifies their spot a bit more for now, even though Arizona is working hard to make their loss look worse.

The first change in my ranks comes with Ole Miss. They lost an extraordinarily close game to an opponent ranked higher than they are, losing two fumbles near the goal line and the end of the game to seal it. It was so closely contested that I am tempted to leave them ranked higher, but with two losses it is hard to justify that spot. They'll be the highest ranked 2 loss team at #13.

With Ole Miss dropping, everyone until Nebraska moves up one spot. No one in that range was particularly inspiring this week. ND nearly lost to Navy, continuing a season that does little to inspire. Nebraska lost Ameer Abdullah after a handful of carries and still managed to beat Purdue by 3 touchdowns in what looked like one of their worst performances thus far. 

The first move of more than one spot came with Ohio St skipping ahead to #14 with three teams ahead of them losing. They'll have their shot at causing me some trouble this week vs Mich St. Joining Ole Miss in the 2-loss ranks are Arizona and Georgia, dropping to #18 and #19 respectively. 

What comes next is a customary shuffling of winners and losers, nothing worth much explaining. I will note that I dropped a couple of 2 loss teams (Clemson and Boise St) in favor of a Duke team that keeps winning and a shout out to a 3 loss Maryland team that came up with big win at Penn St and losses to West Virginia (the only other ranked 3 loss team), Ohio State, and Wisconsin. I am fully prepared to drop those 3 loss teams if others come up, but I felt like they fit for today. 

Honorable Mention:
Iowa and Wisconsin have a shot at moving into the ranks with a few more wins, but both have 2 losses and and at least one of their losses came from a team they shouldn't have lost to. I would mention Minnesota here, but I imagine they will be the team that loses so one of the others can move up. 

In the Pac 12, things are going to keep getting uglier, but I think USC and Washington have a chance at moving up with some wins. USC lost to ASU and Utah, with a BC loss staining their record, while Washington's losses came to Oregon and ASU, along with a Stanford team that has lost enough to not be helpful in most strength of schedule conversations. 

Texas A&M has 3 losses, but they were all to teams still doing pretty well: Miss St, Ole Miss, and Alabama. They could make some noise this week in a match up with Auburn, so let's hope they pull out a win and further tarnish the pristine SEC picture. 

Dishonorable Mention
Missouri. The only thing that could have made me hate this team more was if they moved to the SEC, so that was very convenient for my world. In spite of serving up some excellent nachos in their stadium, they are the worst there is. I hate that I have to mention them, which is the only downside to Georgia's loss to Florida. They are 7-2 in what has become a really enjoyably mediocre SEC East. They lost to Georgia in a blowout and then to Indiana. Yes, that is a middling B1G team beating your SEC East leaders. They might make some rankings, not this one. 

PS. I didn't proofread this one AT ALL. Enjoy the typos ya jerks!