One tidbit worth noting is that, by my count, the "weak" B1G has 5 teams in the poll. That is only 2 fewer ranked teams than the SEC, the same as the Pac 12, and more than the Big 12 or ACC.
Let's start with a look at my current ranks alongside other major polls.
*note that I think my previous ranks were marked with the wrong week, so I skipped week 11...
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MINE
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CFP
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AP
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USA
Today
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1
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Mississippi St 9-0
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Mississippi State
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Mississippi State (48)
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Mississippi State (41)
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2
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Florida State 9-0
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Florida State (12)
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Florida State (20)
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3
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TCU 8-1
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4
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Oregon 9-1
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Oregon (1)
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5
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Arizona State 8-1
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6
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Alabama 8-1
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7
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Ohio State 8-1
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8
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Michigan State 7-2
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9
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Baylor 8-1
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10
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Auburn 8-2
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11
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Nebraska 8-1
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12
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UCLA 8-2
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13
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Arizona 7-2
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14
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Ole Miss 8-2
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15
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Kansas State 7-2
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16
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Notre Dame 7-2
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17
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Georgia 7-2
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18
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Duke 8-1
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19
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Colorado State 9-1
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20
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Marshall 9-0
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21
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Clemson 7-2
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22
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Boise St 7-2
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23
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LSU 7-3
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24
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Texas A&M 7-3
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25
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Wisconsin 7-2
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Starting with the top 4, I think the CFP has it right for now, even though we disagree on the order. When it gets to the end of the year, that order doesn't much matter anyway.
I don't think Alabama deserves to be up there at the moment. They have quality wins, but not against a team with fewer than 3 losses, and their loss is to an Ole Miss team than I have never been high on. Right now I have Alabama on the level with Oregon and Arizona St. TCU takes the lead with wins against similar quality teams, and its only loss against Baylor, which brings me to #7-10.
Baylor may have beat TCU, but their loss is to a sliding WV team. They have a few good wins, which keeps them high, but those losses count. A loss to a bad team is why Ohio St. isn't any higher. The first two loss teams to break my rankings were Auburn and Michigan St. They both have quality wins, and their losses came to teams with fewer losses. Michigan St has only lost to one loss teams, so they rank higher.
Next on the list is Nebraska. This selection and my rank of Michigan St could possibly be identified as my own B1G bias, but I would remind you that the much-maligned conference has as many or more teams in the CFP than all but the SEC. Mich St doesn't have a loss to a bad team and has handled everyone else. Nebraska's only loss is to them. As with most these teams, their quality will get proven out in tough conference matchups and title games before the final rankings. For now though, I don't think you can downgrade a 1 loss team in a power conference so easily. Nebraska faces Wisconsin and Minnesota next, both of whom are currently ranked and only have 2 losses.
The flip side to my Nebraska and Michigan State rankings are probably the downgrades of Ole Miss and Georgia. Georgia hasn't beat anyone exciting and has some losses that should force them down the list. Ole Miss ranks out more like Arizona for me, having beat a top tier team, but having done little else to move them past those around them.
The last part of my rankings take a bit of a departure from the CFP. I value wins quite a bit, so teams like Duke, Colorado State, Marshall, and Boise St are higher for me than for them. From that group, only Duke actually makes the CFP. Marshall has a really weak schedule and could finish undefeated but with no wins over anyone that hasn't lost at least 4 games. I feel bad for these teams at times, but if your conference is a cakewalk, you have to schedule non-conference games that prove your quality. Even a win against a 3 loss team from a tougher conference would do wonders for a team like them.
The Mountain West has two teams in my rankings, CO St and Boise St, because they have a few more teams with high win totals, their wins being mostly to one another. Boise St actually has a loss to Ole Miss as well, which gives them a bit of a bump.
Those non-power conference teams replace Georgia Tech, Utah, and Minnesota in my rankings. Those are pretty decent teams with a chance to disrupt the rankings, but each has a pretty bad loss on their resume that keeps them out for the time being.
I think the end of these rankings come to my defense if someone were to suggest a B1G bias. I have Wisconsin 5 spots lower than the CFB due to their loss to Northwestern, even though it would make the rest of the B1G, and especially Nebraska, look better to have them higher. This assumes that Nebraska can pull out the win against them this week. The same reasoning can be applied to my exclusion of Minnesota (who lost to Illinois) from the top 25.
The B1G West has some really exciting potential for the end of the year. Nebraska, Minnesota, and Wisconsin all play a bevy of 1, 2, and 3 loss teams to finish out. The one who wins the most will play for the title (presumably against a 1 loss Ohio State). Could Minnesota upset Ohio St, Wisconsin, AND Nebraska and then Ohio St again in the Championship? Could Wisconsin? Could Nebraska win out and enter the playoff conversation with wins against 2 or 3 ranked teams, their only loss against a highly ranked, 2 loss Michigan State?
All of the playoff spots will be affected dramatically by who wins conference championships. Keep an eye on that as the season progresses. Teams with bad losses (Ohio St) or without impressive wins (Duke?) could bully into the conversation if they win those titles.
Other than the Ole Miss downgrade, the LSU spot is the biggest display of a potential SEC bias. They are clearly the best 3 loss team, having lost to teams with 1,2, and 3 losses themselves. They have a few solid wins, but nothing dynamic, all 2 or 3 loss teams. I think this and Ole Miss, among others, are examples of a failure to adjust after teams they beat or who beat them turn out to not be as good as anticipated. Texas A&M was expected to be great until they lost three in a row. It's a pain in the butt, but that sort of retroactive adjustment needs brought into consideration. On the other hand, some teams turn out to be better than anticipated, so wins and losses against them should be valued as such. UCLA is probably the best example of this.
As a bonus for anyone who read this entire thing, the teams that I have just outside the top 25 include Minnesota, Georgia Tech, Miami, and Florida. Four loss teams with a chance to either get in the mix or to screw things up include Rutgers and Stanford. Rutgers plays Michigan St and Maryland next, while Stanford finishes the season with matchups against Utah, Cal, and UCLA.
Games to watch this week:
Clemson vs Georgia Tech - winner makes the top 25, loser is out.
Ohio St vs Minnesota - a two loss team with upset potential. Their record also affects strength of schedule for a lot of teams.
Miss St vs Alabama - A loss puts Alabama out of the playoff picture. If Miss St loses, it actually opens up the possibility of no SEC teams in the playoff...
Nebraska vs Wisconsin - The first real test (other than Mich. St) for Nebraska. A legit win should boost them back up the CFP and justify my leaving them there. On the other hand, a loss will torpedo their postseason hopes while only pushing Wisconsin up the ranks a little.
Utah vs Stanford - Could push Utah out of the ranks, definitely affects S.O.S. for Pac 12 either way.
Auburn vs Georgia - I expect this to finally push Georgia out of their undeserved spot to a lower, still undeserved spot.
Florida St vs Miami - is this the week FSU takes a loss? If they do, will they fall out of playoff talk entirely? Probably.
Michigan St vs Maryland - I had Maryland ranked briefly, but now their win vs West Virginia isn't as impressive. A decent team that could stir things up a bit, or at least help M St prove they belong.
Missouri vs Texas A&M - I think that for a team with some issue, Texas A&M could really stir things up. A win here (and a presumed win for Auburn over Georgia) leaves SEC West with 3 loss teams at the top and gives me the great pleasure of dropping Missouri from the top 25.
