Week 15 Top 25 Without SEC Bias or Bo Pelini

You'll find something notably absent in this article. It's done, and I think it was foolish, but now that it's done I am looking to the future with some level of excitement. I am not one to anticipate or predict my team doing poorly to prove me right, and I don't think future success proves me wrong. No further comments allowed! They will be rebutted, erased, or ignored with extreme prejudice!

Today's rankings came together pretty easily, until the end. A few teams shuffled down the list, but I started having trouble when I got to the 20's, where I had to figure out how to align several uninspiring 3 loss teams, the best of the 4 loss times, and Boise State. It took erasing and rewriting the list multiple times, and I honestly don't think there is a terrible wrong way to arrange the teams I have from 19-25.

RK	MINE	CFP
1	Florida State	Alabama
2	Oregon	Oregon
3	TCU	TCU
4	Alabama	Florida State
5	Ohio State	Ohio State
6	Baylor	Baylor
7	Michigan St	Arizona
8	Arizona	Michigan State
9	Kansas St	Kansas State
10	Mississippi St	Mississippi St
11	Wisconsin	Georgia Tech
12	Georgia Tech	Ole Miss
13	Missouri	Wisconsin
14	Oklahoma	Georgia
15	Ole Miss	UCLA
16	UCLA	Missouri
17	Georgia	Arizona State
18	Arizona St	Clemson
19	Clemson	Auburn
20	LSU	Oklahoma
21	Auburn	Louisville
22	Boise St	Boise State
23	USC	Utah
24	Nebraska	LSU
25	Minnesota	USC

So here is how I'm going to tacked things this week. I will look at each segment of teams according to number of losses. I probably won't mention all the teams, but then I'm not getting paid to do this... The first segment is pretty easy.

Undefeated

Florida State is the only team without a loss after Marshall took a loss and officially vacated the rankings. In any given week, regardless of the opponent, I am never surprised that they win and would never be surprised if they lost. They seem almost as averse to comfortable wins as they are to losing. No losses keeps them atop my list even as they tumble to 4th this week in the CFP. I think that if they win their conference, they deserve to stay in the playoff and I wouldn't be shocked if they win. 

1 Loss

Other than Marshall, the 1 loss teams all follow in the ranks. At this point, I assume Alabama wins their conference and makes the playoff, but I am completely uninspired by their wins against teams that have now amassed no fewer than 4 losses, except for Mississippi St with 2, and their only real notable win was Ole Miss, who now has three losses. I like that TCU, with a better loss, is ranked higher than Baylor, and it looks like Ohio St may make the B1G the power 5 conference to miss the playoff. Their bad luck holds as the Heisman candidate replacement to their Heisman candidate QB went out last week. They could easily lose to Wisconsin in their conference championship now and elevate Michigan St to be the most likely 2 loss team to make the playoff. Speaking as 2 loss teams...

2 Loss

I think Michigan State is clearly the best 2 loss team, but the CFP has Arizona above them, presumably because they beat Oregon. Arizona has the better wins, but Michigan St only lost to 1 loss teams. With Arizona's rematch against Oregon coming up again, as well as Alabama and Florida St playing good teams in their own championship games, we could see almost the entire playoff upended. 

Seven of the remaining 2 loss teams come next, with Colorado St (who I mistakenly marked as a 1 loss team last week) and Northern Illinois not making the list at all. Boise St falls behind a few three loss teams who had significantly more impressive wins and losses. 

3 Loss

I am shocked that Oklahoma is ranked so low in the CFP. They don't have any impressive wins, but their only losses come against their own #3, #6, and #9. Ole Miss is tough to figure out and I have them ranked next. They have some of the most impressive wins in the country, against 1 and 2 loss teams ranked #1, #10, and #22 in the CFP, but they also had some bad losses against 2 of the ranked 4 loss teams and a surging 6 loss Arkansas. 

Looking at the wins and losses, I felt compelled to rank Nebraska. They had losses to quality teams, including the CFP #8 and #13. They don't have many wins against impressive teams, but I have to apply the logic I have used elsewhere - you can only win the games you play. I can't entirely dismiss a team because they didn't have a strong enough schedule, but only based on the teams they DID play and how they fared against them. Nebraska only lost against good teams. 

A few teams that earned their third loss this week went through my normal evaluation and ended where you see them. I have Georgia ranked lower than the CFP, mostly because they lost to South Carolina and Florida, who both stink.  They have Louisville all the way up to 21, and I very nearly put them in over Minnesota at 25, but they have no real impressive wins and lost against a pretty bad team, while Minnesota lost against impressive TCU, Ohio St, and Wisconsin - in addition to the middling Illinois.  

Several other 3 loss teams remain that don't make the list. Memphis and Duke are probably top 30, and I actually like Cincinnati more than Louisville. UCF and East Carolina are among the remaining 3 loss teams, but won't move up into the ranks due to bad losses. 

4 Loss

I feel like there are five 4 loss teams worth looking at in the rankings right now. I don't understand the CFP fascination with Utah. They don't have a win that separates them from the crowd, especially now that UCLA took their third loss, and their bad loss to Washington St puts them below the others for me. As I said at the top, I can't fault any shuffling in these teams, and the lower 3 loss teams and Boise St. 

Games to Watch This Week:

Oregon vs Arizona in Pac 12 Championship

Alabama vs Missouri in SEC Championship

Ohio St vs Wisconsin in B1G Championship

Florida St vs Georgia Tech in ACC Championship 

Kansas St vs Baylor

This week should prove to be exciting. All of these games could work to completely turn over the playoff teams, with only TCU's matchup against Iowa St the only "easy" game for a current playoff team. For a minute, try to imagine what would happen if Oregon, Alabama, Ohio St, and Florida St all lose, with Baylor winning. Who stays in? Does Baylor become the second Big 12 team in the playoff? Does Florida St lose any chance at the playoff? What 2 loss teams stay or move in new? 

For the record, I think any one of these games could produce an upset, and I think Michigan St is most worthy to move into the playoff as a 2 loss team... ahead of any current 1 loss teams should they take a loss this week. 

Week 14 Top 25 Without SEC Bias

It is a short week for me at work with my Monday's spent at home with the kids while the wife works and Thanksgiving taking me out of town after today, but I am making myself get this done anyway. I am not delusional enough to think anyone outside of a very small handful actually read these all the way through, so I am ready to admit... I did it for me. I liked it. I was good at it. And I was really -- I was alive.

Not a ton happened this week with many teams facing late season non-con cupcakes, but we have enough excitement to mix up our rankings a bit once more. You might actually notice a few seemingly arbitrary rankings down there. After seeing a few things and watching the strength of schedule get watered down or shored up in a few cases, I felt like the moves were warranted. There is also nothing like a breaking the single game rushing record to move your team up a few spots...

RK	MINE	CFP
1	Florida State	Alabama	10-1
2	Oregon	Oregon	10-1
3	TCU	Florida State	11-0
4	Mississippi	Mississippi State	10-1
5	Alabama	TCU	9-1
6	Ohio State	Ohio State	10-1
7	Baylor	Baylor	9-1
8	Michigan St	UCLA	9-2
9	UCLA	Georgia	9-2
10	Arizona	Michigan State	9-2
11	Wisconsin	Arizona	9-2
12	Kansas State	Kansas State	8-2
13	Georgia	Arizona State	9-2
14	Georgia Tech	Wisconsin	9-2
15	Arizona State	Auburn	8-3
16	Missouri	Georgia Tech	9-2
17	Auburn	Missouri	9-2
18	Clemson	Minnesota	8-3
19	Oklahoma	Ole Miss	8-3
20	Minnesota	Oklahoma	8-3
21	Ole Miss	Clemson	8-3
22	Marshall	Louisville	8-3
23	Duke	Boise State	9-2
24	Colorado State	Marshall	11-0
25	Boise State	Utah	7-4

This week, I didn't look at the new CFP at all until I was typing in my personal ranks into the table next to them. That, in itself, was pretty interesting. On my own ranks, it stayed the same for the most part until I got to Ole Miss and the other losers for the week. Obviously, the big difference off the bat is my ranking for Alabama. I certainly don't think they deserve the top spot - with the standards I've been using, they clearly do not deserve it. Florida St doesn't deserve it either, but each week I am completely dumbfounded that they don't lose. They might not even be a top 10 team, but at this point I could see them beating anyone, while also not being surprised by them losing to anyone. ANYONE. 

Not only do I not have Alabama number 1, I moved them out of a playoff spot this week. Other than Miss St, they haven't beaten a team that doesn't have at least 4 losses. Other than Miss St, no other top team has such a weak schedule. They have at least beat Auburn, who only has 3 losses for now. Even FSU with their epic schedule weakness has beat a pair of 3 loss teams. With Ole Miss continuing to plummet, Alabama's loss keeps looking worse. 

Oregon is up there because  of how few losses their top opponents have - I'll be putting their number of losses in parenthesis from here on out. They've beaten Mich St (2) and UCLA(2) , along with the only 4 loss team in the CFP - Utah. Their sole loss is to Arizona (2). Baylor has beaten TCU (1) and Oklahoma (3), but I still have TCU ranked above them because Baylor lost to West Virginia (5). I am finding the head to head matchups to not be all that helpful. I don't care who was best that one week, I care who is best on the season. TCU has beat Kansas St (2), Oklahoma (3), Minnesota (3), and that WV team that beat Baylor, with their only loss to another 1 loss team. Honestly, I think that by the time the conference championship games are played, the Big 12 may be the conference with the most legit claim to two playoff spots. 

Alabama's loss to Ole Miss is looking worse, but it will never look as bad as Ohio State's loss to Virginia Tech. Ohio State is looking playoff worthy, but it will take that precious conference championship and a few losses ahead of them to make it happen. 

My rankings stay the same until Ole Miss, who plummets ten spots after a third loss, this time to Arkansas, who is suddenly out to prove that either they aren't terrible, or that the top SEC teams aren't that great. Judging by their existing record, we have to assume that AK still isn't some powerhouse and that the teams they are beating just weren't as good as they were getting credit for. 

My next change is to jump Wisconsin over K St and AZ St. Melvin Gordon. Heisman. They've added decent wins lately over their most difficult opponents so far. This middle section could go either way, so I've allowed myself this indulgence. They have a bad loss that K-State doesn't have, but I think they have better wins than either of the teams they jumped. 

The next ranked team is Georgia, moving up a few spots, but only jumping an Arizona St that continues to lose my confidence. They had 3 wins against 3 loss opponents, but all three of those teams lost this week. I put them behind Georgia Tech as well. I was surprised when I couldn't find a reason to put this team lower, but losses by three teams ahead of them made it an easy move. All three of those teams (Nebraska, USC, Utah) now find themselves outside of my top 25. I am hoping that if Nebraska beats Iowa and Minnesota beats Wisconsin, a share in the B1G West title will allow me to move the Huskers back into the top 25. 

Auburn didn't lose, and their strength of schedule was left relatively unscathed, but I still ended up moving Missouri past them. That's saying something, because I look for reasons to leave Missouri out every week because they are the worst. I'd consider that a minor reshuffling anyway, along the lines of Clemson jumping Oklahoma, but with all the teams staying pretty fairly close to previous positioning. 

Towards the end here, we find the teams from those other conferences re-emerging. I just can't quit them. Regardless of schedule, I can't see myself dumping teams that have lost 0 or 1 games. The Mountain West is probably better than they are credited for. The AAC is actually pretty decent as well, with 4 three loss teams. 

This might be unfeasible, but I wonder if the best way to find the best teams might be to limit conference games a bit and have a bit of a round-robin tournament with non-conference games to end the year. Rather than having a deeper playoff, regional conferences, or eliminating bowls, simply have the Playoff Committee, or some similar group, schedule two weeks of non-conference matchups after conference schedules (and maybe championships), but before bowls and playoffs. Each team gets a home and away game, and everyone gets to face a team that should be competitive and telling. Sure, the bottom feeders will all be playing each other, but that at least gives teams with no wins a shot to put one in the win column! Meanwhile, Marshall gets to play a few solid 2 or three loss teams and show what they are really made of. Florida St gets to play 1 loss teams, Ohio St, Baylor and others get a chance to make us forget they lost to really bad teams. The committee gets to see what they need to set a final playoff and the rest of us get to see bowl-style match ups that actually matter in our home stadiums. 

I am awesome and ideas. 

Games to watch this week:

Arizona vs Arizona St - I expect AZ to win, bolstering Oregon as they go. 

Alabama vs Auburn - I'd love to see AL lose and get me closer to that no-SEC playoff I'm hankering for. 

Miss St vs Ole Miss - Ole Mess will have a hard time, but wouldn't it be great to see them win this?

Arkansas vs Missouri - After the last two weeks, I am actually interested in what will happen here...

Georgia vs Georgia Tech - could mix up the middle rankings a bit like the AZ game.

Minnesota vs Wisconsin - Ditto, plus it determines who goes to the B1G title game.

Week 13 Top 25: Entirely Bias Free

I started writing this far sooner than usual, sick over the embarrassing Nebraska loss, but ended up finishing it later than usual after being actually sick for all of Tuesday. Call me selfish, but I'll take the occasional Husker loss over repeated that day - I'll not take on for the team. Maybe for some sort of championship...

Today, I am still mad because my team blew their outside shot at the playoffs with an embarrassing loss to a team that I don't think is that great. It is so embarrassing that I am even refusing to engage in my normal talking of trash. Seems like that sort of thing would be cheap and unnecessary. Even worse,  several people who call themselves Husker fans are exhibiting their nature as being the worst kind of people, calling for firings and changes just short of giving up altogether after a bad loss... that was only our second loss of the season... that came from a team that will probably play for the conference championship. Boo friggin Hoo. Guess who else has lost twice? Everyone except for 9 teams, and of that group only Marshall and Colorado State aren't legit playoff hopefuls. We'll likely win 10 or 11 games and people will still want the staff cleared out to hire Scott Frost.

Deep breath.

Now for the rankings. This week you get my ranks next to the CFB ranks. 

	CFP		MINE
1	Alabama	9-1	Florida State
2	Oregon	9-1	Oregon
3	Florida State	10-0	TCU
4	Mississippi State	9-1	Alabama
5	TCU	9-1	Mississippi State
6	Ohio State	9-1	Ohio State
7	Baylor	8-1	Baylor
8	Ole Miss	8-2	Michigan State
9	UCLA	8-2	UCLA
10	Georgia	8-2	Arizona
11	Michigan State	8-2	Ole Miss
12	Kansas State	7-2	Kansas State
13	Arizona State	8-2	Arizona State
14	Auburn	7-3	Wisconsin
15	Arizona	8-2	Georgia
16	Wisconsin	8-2	Auburn
17	Utah	7-3	Utah
18	Georgia Tech	9-2	USC
19	USC	7-3	Nebraska
20	Missouri	8-2	Georgia Tech
21	Oklahoma	7-3	Missouri
22	Clemson	7-3	Oklahoma
23	Nebraska	8-2	Clemson
24	Louisville	7-3	Minnesota
25	Minnesota	7-3	Colorado State

My rankings aren't actually far off from theirs this week. I dropped some of my minor conference teams, because they haven't beaten enough teams worth mention and they lost to teams with too many losses... CSU is in there as my token team to represent the likes of Boise St, Marshall, and Air Force. 

Remember that wins and losses are my main criteria here. How many wins do you have, and how many wins the teams you beat have? How many losses do you have, and how many losses did the teams you beat have? That criteria explains some of the differences, especially with SEC teams dropping more for me with LSU and Texas A&M getting their fourth losses and Auburn getting their third. 

I feel like their ranks were artificially inflated by early records that aren't as impressive now. Look at Ole Miss and tell me they are worth ranking over Michigan State. Ole Miss beat Alabama, but only Boise St and Texas A&M show up on the radar otherwise. Their losses now look worse with LSU and Auburn adding to the wrong side of the w/l column this week. Michigan State's best win against Nebraska  may not look impressive, but they have only lost to the 1-loss Oregon and Ohio St teams. 

Miss St getting their first loss moves them down the ranks, but it wasn't a surprise. Beating LSU, Texas A&M, and Auburn looked great at the time, but now Miss St's best win is against a 3 loss team. Conference title games will probably drop them further as other teams add quality wins. 

Wins and losses for other teams had predictable results. Close wins for TCU, Ohio St, Arizona, and Utah keep them up in the rankings, and Florida State will apparently never, ever lose. Notre Dame is out of the picture entirely after losing to a Northwestern team that, incidentally, also beat Wisconsin. A glimmer of strength from the downtrodden B1G?

The SEC brought us some shocking, but not unpleasant results. Georgia torched Auburn, proving again that Auburn is not as good as I'd imagined. I love to see an SEC team lose, and with their win against Texas A&M, Missouri controls their destiny in the East division,  diluting the SOS of various teams who played A&M,  while continuing to be terrible. LSU gave Arkansas their first SEC win in 18 years, well 18 games. That was a bad loss, proves me right about LSU.

I think the biggest loss of the week was Arizona State's loss to Oregon St. There was talk that they would contend for a playoff spot if they won Pac 12 title game,  that doesn't seem reasonable now.  

I'd like to defend my Nebraska rank by reminding everyone that their two losses are both to teams with no more than 2 losses, ranked in the top 10 and 20. Big losses are embarrassing, but if they were earlier in the year the sting wouldn't be so fresh and they wouldn't be downgraded as much.