Brent Musburger says there
isn’t an SEC bias. Kim Jong Un swears he can dunk a basketball. Both are about
as convincing as Winnie the Pooh claiming his innocence with a paw still in the
honey jar.
I think many would agree
that the conference has had at least a slight edge over everyone else in the
last decade or so, but they were far from dominant in anything other than
winning championships in a system that was seemingly designed to create
champions from the SEC.
Now, this blog isn’t about
the existence of an SEC bias, it is for people who already accept this as truth.
If you want to see the light about the bias, read this or this.
I wouldn’t accuse the playoff
selection committee of an overt bias, I couldn’t do that with the illustrious
Tom Osborne on board. I do, however, think they are starting from a foundation
built on a preference toward the SEC. Essentially, everyone assumes SEC teams
are the best, so a win or loss vs. an SEC team is weighted differently, even if
it is undeserved.
I searched high and low
for something that rejected any SEC bias, but couldn’t find a ranking to suit
me, so I made my own. What do I think the first edition of the playoff
selection committee’s top 25 would look like without an SEC bias? Let me tell ya… but
before my
rankings, I suppose I had better explain how I got them.
First
of all, I completely ignored any existing rankings. Each week they start with
the previous rankings and move from there, even though it all began with blind
guessing for week 1. That, in itself, is a major flaw. Who cares if you beat
the team ranked #7 in the preseason when they went on to lose 4 more games and
finish unranked? Well, most rankings and strength of schedule formulas do…
Second,
wins and losses are of primary importance. I start with a team’s record and
adjust from there.
Strength
of schedule will play in, but will be based on their opponent’s wins and losses
rather than their ranking. I don’t buy that the SEC deserves a pass on losses
based on “strength of schedule” when their non-conference games are all
cupcakes and so are half of their conference games. Wins and losses. Not how
highly ranked your opponents were, but how many wins and losses they have.
I
will value a team’s full record over simply looking at each individual game. I
won’t do a whole lot of “Team A beat Team B, and Team B beat Team C, so Team A
is better than Team C.” Sports are crazy and sometimes a better overall team
doesn’t have what it takes to win one day. You could run this sort of reasoning
in circles. There are too many teams for this to be an effective tool in most
cases.
I
won’t put much stock in margin of victory. Any team can beat a lesser opponent
and run up the score. I’d actually give more credit for a gutsy close win than
a blowout. They didn’t “almost lose,” they won. That said, I would compare the
quality of victory between common opponents. That’s more than looking at the
score though – scores can be deceiving.
Head
to head matchups will be tricky. Hard to rank a team below a team they beat. It
has to happen though…
Finally,
I won’t present this as perfection. I will ignore my own rules and dismiss
logic. I will display my own bias and make choices that will prove wrong
(though I will adjust my rankings more freely than anyone official ever would.)
Additionally, yes, there will still be SEC teams ranked high, but I will be
looking greedily towards their upcoming losses!
THEIRS
|
MINE
|
|
1
|
Florida State
|
|
2
|
Mississippi St
|
|
3
|
Auburn
|
|
4
|
Oregon
|
|
5
|
TCU
|
|
6
|
Michigan St
|
|
7
|
Alabama
|
|
8
|
Ole Miss
|
|
9
|
Kansas State
|
|
10
|
Baylor
|
|
11
|
Notre Dame
|
|
12
|
Nebraska
|
|
13
|
Arizona
|
|
14
|
Georgia
|
|
15
|
Ohio State
|
|
16
|
Oklahoma
|
|
17
|
West Virginia
|
|
18
|
Utah
|
|
19
|
Arizona State
|
|
20
|
LSU
|
|
21
|
UCLA
|
|
22
|
Marshall
|
|
23
|
Colorado St
|
|
24
|
Clemson
|
|
25
|
Boise State
|
1. Florida State (7-0)
2. Mississippi St (7-0)
They
won it last year and haven’t lost yet, so Florida St. deserves that top spot. Sort
of. I don’t trust them to win out, even
with a pretty weak schedule, and their wins haven’t been all that convincing,
but they are the reigning champs and one of only 3 undefeated teams. Meanwhile, the only win for MS St that really
impresses me is Auburn. LSU has two losses and Texas A&M has been a train wreck.
If they finish undefeated with wins against Alabama and Ole Miss teams that
look good now, I’d reconsider.
3. Auburn (6-1)
I
really like Auburn to do well moving forward, but I think they earned this spot
already. They lost to MS St, but beat K St and an overrated LSU. They play Ole
Miss this week…
4. Oregon (7-1)
Oregon
gave Mich St it’s only loss, and lost to a one loss Arizona team. I heard talk
about the Pac-12 being good, but when they all lost 1 game to each other they
were dismissed in other polls while SEC teams were excused. I’d rank them over
Ole Miss. In fact, you won’t see Ole Miss for a while here…
5. TCU (6-1)
TCU’s
numbers have been impressive and their only loss is to a good Baylor team, but
their only impressive win is over Oklahoma.
I am ready to blow up this ranking over the next month while the Big 12,
SEC, and Pac 12 cannibalize themselves, but for now TCU fits fine here.
6. Michigan State (7-1)
Yes,
the B1G isn’t great this year, but Michigan St has only lost to Oregon, who is
a better team that TCU lost to. However,
their only quality win is over an underrated Nebraska team. Yes, I am a biased
Husker fan, but they are better than they are being given credit for...
7. Alabama (7-1)
I
know, I know. Alabama lost to Ole Miss, so they should be behind them in the
rankings. Let’s be honest though, this sort of thing is all over the rankings
and will become more common as the season continues. Their best win is West
Virginia right now, but Alabama gets some credit for last year, just like FSU. They have plenty of opportunity to move up.
8. Ole Miss (7-1)
But,
but, but they beat Alabama! They also got early credit in the rankings earlier
on for a win over Texas A&M, who, as it turns out, is terrible. They lost
to a 2-loss LSU team that I think is also over ranked. Both this team and LSU could
prove me wrong, but for now I don’t mind holding back from giving them
preemptive trophies.
9. Kansas State (6-1)
I’ll
admit, I like to see them win. They
deserve this spot though since their loss is to an Auburn team I like. Their
best win is over OK, but they have a brutal schedule ahead that could move them
up or down.
10. Baylor (6-1)
Baylor beat a very good
TCU team before losing to a surging West Virginia. Again, like the Pac 12, the
Big 12 is far from decided, so we just have to balance those two outcomes to
rank for now.
11. Notre Dame (6-1)
Notre Dame just lost a
squeaker to #1 FSU. Staying undefeated so long tempts us to place them higher,
especially since they almost beat FSU. Unfortunately for them, they didn’t, and
their only win over a decent team is a 3 loss Stanford team. ND only plays
Arizona St from here out, so moving back up would take St winning out, EXCEPT
for the ND game…
12. Nebraska (7-1)
I TOLD YOU I WAS A FAN.
Nebraska hasn’t beat
anyone great. There, I said it. Their best win was over an old rival in 3 loss
Miami. It was fun, but not noteworthy.
Since this is my team, I will add that it WAS nice to see them finally
break free from an unreasonable penchant for close games with Northwestern. I
watched them lose that game a few years back in person so the win felt good,
but since they have 3 other losses… so what? I’d mention the 3 loss Rutgers,
but they will probably finish with 6 losses.
I’d compare this ranking
to ND because neither have an impressive schedule and are characterized by who
they lost to rather than who they beat. I WILL say that a Michigan St game that
looked like a blowout ended with a gut wrenching near comeback that literally
almost made me throw up. Wisconsin is still on our schedule, but doesn’t look
that great. The Husker’s best chance at a higher ranking is a rematch with
Mich. St in the B1G championship paired with losses around them.
13. Arizona (6-1)
Arizona is here because
they beat Oregon, but may have shown their true stripes in a loss to USC. The
Oregon win buoys them for now, but most of the best Pac 12 teams have back
loaded schedules that will soon render this ranking useless.
14. Georgia (6-1)
Georgia is my pet peeve.
They lost their bowl game to Nebraska last year, but started out ranked higher
and have benefited from that higher starting point. They beat a decent 2 loss
Clemson team and an irrelevant 2 loss Missouri team who has done a good job of
illustrating how weak an SEC schedule can be. Seriously go check theirs out).
Worse, their loss is to South Carolina who has as many losses as wins.
15. Ohio State (6-1)
Ohio State is in a sorry
state, but I still almost put them above Georgia. They finished the regular
season undefeated last year and the year before, but it didn’t really matter.
They went on to lose Braxton Miller, a Heisman caliber player, and then lost an
early game to a weak team. Since the
loss, the backup QB has shone and they’ve been fine, but you can’t hide the
loss of their best player or the loss to Virginia Tech. They are ranked this low
for now, and their only chance to move up is to beat Michigan St and then win
the B1G.
16. Oklahoma (5-2)
If you have two losses,
both need to be to higher ranked teams and you need at least one good win,
otherwise you don’t deserve to be looked at this early. Oklahoma has two losses
to higher ranked teams in TCU and K State. Its best win is over a West Virginia
team I’ve mentioned a few times already! Hard to rank them higher with 2
losses, just assuming they will keep winning. They can prove their right to be
higher though.
17. West Virginia (6-2)
Their losses are to OK and
Alabama, and they gave Baylor their lone loss. They deserve this for now, but I’m
looking forward to seeing where they land with a big game vs TCU this week.
18. Utah (6-1)
Utah beat UCLA and a few 3
loss teams, but lost to a bad Washington State team. Like Ohio State, they can’t hide a bad loss,
but wins in their strong late schedule could help them. I’m not excited to put
them here, but it fits.
19. Arizona St. (6-1)
Arizona State only has one
loss, but it was to a 2 loss team and I don’t think they beat else anyone who
doesn’t currently have at least 3 losses total. Another Pac 12 team that fits
here for now, but will move up or down a lot in the coming weeks.
20. LSU (7-2)
LSU beat a Wisconsin team
that will be considered a worthwhile win except when Nebraska beats them. They also beat an Ole Miss team that I think
is overrated and will drop like a rock in the coming weeks. Their losses are
impressive ones to that Auburn team I like and to the surprising Miss St team
that will also probably not hold their place on top. I’m fine with ranking them
highly among 2 loss teams, but look forward to dropping them as they lose their
luster when they lose more.
21. UCLA (6-2)
UCLA has the unfortunate
luck of having faced most of the best the Pac 12 has to offer this year, losing
to Utah and Oregon already. They did hand Arizona St their only loss though, so
that means something. Arizona is up this week.
22. Marshall (8-0)
Marshall is undefeated,
but they have no one noteworthy anywhere on their schedule. I hate when
non-major conferences don’t get attention though, so they’ll appear here for
now. Regardless of schedule, it is hard to win them all, and we don’t know they
aren’t good enough to beat anyone until they don’t.
23. Colorado State (7-1)
Colorado St doesn’t have
much a schedule, but their only loss is to a decent Boise St team. They appear
soon, so you’ll see why I placed CO St here over East Carolina or Duke.
24. Clemson (6-2)
Clemson lost to Georgia
and FSU, and beat, who? Louisville? Meh.
25. Boise St. (6-2)
Boise St gave Colorado St
it’s only loss, and while they also lost to Air Force, they get some credit for
an early season loss to Ole Miss. If we want to give Ole Miss love, we gotta
give some to Boise St, right? OK, fair enough, I don’t want to give Ole Miss
any credit, so I doubt Boise St lasts here… but for now…
Others of note:
East Carolina
has one loss, but none of their wins are worth a mention and their loss is to
South Carolina. I already said this, but they have 4 losses. That’s not good.
That’s the same amount of wins they have. East Carolina ranks lower than some
teams with more losses because of this.
Duke I wish
they were good at football and I don’t know why, unfortunately they aren’t. They
have one loss and could finish the season that way, but they didn’t beat anyone
of note and their loss is to that Miami team who hasn’t been good since they
stopped paying players and offering on-campus bail bond service.
Louisville –
I am going to cheat and drop them after they got their third loss in an early
game to FSU. It was close and it was to my #1, but it was still their third
loss.
Minnesota
lost to TCU, but also to Illinois and it is about to get much tougher.
Wisconsin
lost to LSU, but also Northwestern. They
have a chance to make the ranks, but don’t deserve it yet.
No comments:
Post a Comment